Something weird happened to me whilst watching Liverpool’s latest attempt to single-handedly decimate Channel 5 viewing figures. It wasn’t the realisation that my time would be better spent juggling steak-knives or frowning at spiders. Nor was it the comforting thought that, no matter how bad things may appear, there’s always another Jean Claude Van Damme film just around the corner to put everything into perspective.
No, this particular epiphany occurred roughly three quarters of the way through the ‘action’ and related to a remark made by the increasingly desperate, incident-starved commentator. As Liverpool prepared to plant a corner squarely on the forehead of a grateful Utrecht defender a flicker of excitement entered his voice and, with baseless optimism temporarily overcoming grim reality, he confidently asserted that this was the time when the home team were at their most dangerous. Now I don’t have the precise quote to hand, struggling as I was to simultaneously retain consciousness and the will to live. But I swear that was the gist: that Liverpool’s threat is at its greatest in the closing stages of a game.
No, this particular epiphany occurred roughly three quarters of the way through the ‘action’ and related to a remark made by the increasingly desperate, incident-starved commentator. As Liverpool prepared to plant a corner squarely on the forehead of a grateful Utrecht defender a flicker of excitement entered his voice and, with baseless optimism temporarily overcoming grim reality, he confidently asserted that this was the time when the home team were at their most dangerous. Now I don’t have the precise quote to hand, struggling as I was to simultaneously retain consciousness and the will to live. But I swear that was the gist: that Liverpool’s threat is at its greatest in the closing stages of a game.
Bald
To qualify the statement, it was quickly pointed out that this applied in the main to Europa League fixtures. Indeed, the bald truth is that we have scored a highly creditable six goals so far this season after the 75th minute mark (a figure I have decided to use as an arbitrary ‘lateness indicator’) in that tournament alone. Admittedly three of these occurred in a single game, the Steven Gerrard hat-trick against Napoli. But still. Six late goals. Mustn’t grumble.
It was then that I let my mind wander which, given the paucity of activity on show at Anfield, was a distraction to be warmly embraced, like a wealthy relative in a hospital bed. I cast my mind back to happier times, when trophies arrived with the frequency of raindrops in an English summer, and when Liverpool’s status as ‘masters of the late goal’ was unchallenged.
To qualify the statement, it was quickly pointed out that this applied in the main to Europa League fixtures. Indeed, the bald truth is that we have scored a highly creditable six goals so far this season after the 75th minute mark (a figure I have decided to use as an arbitrary ‘lateness indicator’) in that tournament alone. Admittedly three of these occurred in a single game, the Steven Gerrard hat-trick against Napoli. But still. Six late goals. Mustn’t grumble.
It was then that I let my mind wander which, given the paucity of activity on show at Anfield, was a distraction to be warmly embraced, like a wealthy relative in a hospital bed. I cast my mind back to happier times, when trophies arrived with the frequency of raindrops in an English summer, and when Liverpool’s status as ‘masters of the late goal’ was unchallenged.
Jelly
Back then, throughout the ‘70s and ‘80s, it seemed that Liverpool matches followed one of two distinct patterns. Either we destroyed teams, overpowering them, outplaying them, handing out football lessons like jelly at a crèche. Or we bided our time, tested the opposition’s resistance, absorbed their best efforts, before striking in the nick of time, breaking the hearts of those deluded enough to think they could hold us at bay. The amount of games that were won as the final whistle approached passed into legend.
Sadly, as the demise of the ‘90s took hold so the late-goal baton made its way along the M62, taking up residence at the shrine of brashness, self-aggrandisement and wispy little moustaches, Old Trafford.
Which isn’t to say that we suddenly stopped scoring late goals, as if they had somehow been banished by Graeme Souness along with winning football and moral decency. It's just that, given our failure to consistently challenge for the highest honours, the importance of those goals was proportionately lessened.
Back then, throughout the ‘70s and ‘80s, it seemed that Liverpool matches followed one of two distinct patterns. Either we destroyed teams, overpowering them, outplaying them, handing out football lessons like jelly at a crèche. Or we bided our time, tested the opposition’s resistance, absorbed their best efforts, before striking in the nick of time, breaking the hearts of those deluded enough to think they could hold us at bay. The amount of games that were won as the final whistle approached passed into legend.
Sadly, as the demise of the ‘90s took hold so the late-goal baton made its way along the M62, taking up residence at the shrine of brashness, self-aggrandisement and wispy little moustaches, Old Trafford.
Which isn’t to say that we suddenly stopped scoring late goals, as if they had somehow been banished by Graeme Souness along with winning football and moral decency. It's just that, given our failure to consistently challenge for the highest honours, the importance of those goals was proportionately lessened.
Notched
All of which led me to undertake a bit of research. Because I was fairly certain that, for all our epoch-defining, heroic escapades in European football's version of the X Factor auditions (difficult to watch, low on quality, and faintly embarrassing to be involved in), late goals had been conspicuously missing from this season's league performances.
So, taking the 75 minute mark as my guide, I attempted to discover the reality. How many late goals have we notched this season? How many have been conceded? And how do the findings stack up when compared to totals from the last decade?
Roy Hodgson, you may wish to look away now…
In 17 games Liverpool have so far played in the Premier League this season, Maxi Rodriguez’s late strike in the away win at Bolton remains the only goal we have scored beyond the 75th minute. That’s it. One goal. Meanwhile, Andy Carroll’s bludgeoned injury time effort past Pepe Reina in the disappointing defeat at Newcastle was the sixth goal we have conceded in the same time-frame. That paints a fairly disconcerting picture however you want to look at it.
By way of comparison I also looked at the overall statistics for every season since Gerard Houllier’s first campaign in sole charge (1999/00). Now it should be pointed out that the figures represent the total number of late goals occurring over the course of the entire season, rather than in the first 17 games, and, as such, do not provide for a like-for-like evaluation. But they do underline the fact that, to even come close to matching the performance over the previous decade, major improvements are required in the second half of the season.
All of which led me to undertake a bit of research. Because I was fairly certain that, for all our epoch-defining, heroic escapades in European football's version of the X Factor auditions (difficult to watch, low on quality, and faintly embarrassing to be involved in), late goals had been conspicuously missing from this season's league performances.
So, taking the 75 minute mark as my guide, I attempted to discover the reality. How many late goals have we notched this season? How many have been conceded? And how do the findings stack up when compared to totals from the last decade?
Roy Hodgson, you may wish to look away now…
In 17 games Liverpool have so far played in the Premier League this season, Maxi Rodriguez’s late strike in the away win at Bolton remains the only goal we have scored beyond the 75th minute. That’s it. One goal. Meanwhile, Andy Carroll’s bludgeoned injury time effort past Pepe Reina in the disappointing defeat at Newcastle was the sixth goal we have conceded in the same time-frame. That paints a fairly disconcerting picture however you want to look at it.
By way of comparison I also looked at the overall statistics for every season since Gerard Houllier’s first campaign in sole charge (1999/00). Now it should be pointed out that the figures represent the total number of late goals occurring over the course of the entire season, rather than in the first 17 games, and, as such, do not provide for a like-for-like evaluation. But they do underline the fact that, to even come close to matching the performance over the previous decade, major improvements are required in the second half of the season.
Goals Scored After the 75th Minute
Season -------------For-------Against
2010/11---------------1 --------6
(after 17 games)
2009/10--------------15--------7
2008/09--------------27--------7
2007/08--------------19------- 9
2006/07--------------10--------4
2005/06--------------15--------7
2004/05--------------10--------7
2003/04 -------------14--------8
2002/03--------------15--------15
2001/02--------------15--------5
2000/01--------------17--------9
1999/00--------------12--------3
As the table shows, the general pattern suggests that, on average, since 1999 Liverpool have scored just over twice as many goals in the closing 15 minutes of league matches as they have conceded. Give or take a couple of seasons that may be seen as anomalies in the wider context (2008/09 for goals scored and 2002/03 for goals conceded), this statistic remains constant throughout the Houllier and Benitez eras. It takes neither a mathematical nor a football genius to see that, under Roy Hodgson, we have so far failed to offer the kind of threat late in games that, historically, we have come to expect, and our capacity for resisting pressure in the closing stages is significantly reduced.
Bieber
Of course, it is only fair to look at these findings in relation to the performance of other teams within the division. Perhaps Liverpool’s record is on a par with our rivals, perhaps it just hasn’t been one of those seasons where late goals fly around like pheromones at a Justin Bieber concert.
Well, not quite. Examination of similar data for all the other top flight teams paints a predictably grim picture. Taking Liverpool out of the equation, the average number of goals scored per Premier League club after the 75th minute is a wholly respectable 6.8. Or, to put it another way, nearly seven times the total managed by Hodgson’s team. Even worse, our single late goal is comfortably the lowest tally in the division. The teams currently occupying the bottom five places have each scored four goals in the closing 15 minutes of matches, whilst even fellow strugglers Everton have struck late on seven occasions. At the top of the pile, Arsenal have amassed 11 late goals so far, closely followed by Man United, West Brom and Bolton on ten.
The six goals conceded by Liverpool in the final stages is in line with the average for all Premier League teams this season, and is perhaps the only crumb of comfort to be gained from this exercise.
Of course, it is only fair to look at these findings in relation to the performance of other teams within the division. Perhaps Liverpool’s record is on a par with our rivals, perhaps it just hasn’t been one of those seasons where late goals fly around like pheromones at a Justin Bieber concert.
Well, not quite. Examination of similar data for all the other top flight teams paints a predictably grim picture. Taking Liverpool out of the equation, the average number of goals scored per Premier League club after the 75th minute is a wholly respectable 6.8. Or, to put it another way, nearly seven times the total managed by Hodgson’s team. Even worse, our single late goal is comfortably the lowest tally in the division. The teams currently occupying the bottom five places have each scored four goals in the closing 15 minutes of matches, whilst even fellow strugglers Everton have struck late on seven occasions. At the top of the pile, Arsenal have amassed 11 late goals so far, closely followed by Man United, West Brom and Bolton on ten.
The six goals conceded by Liverpool in the final stages is in line with the average for all Premier League teams this season, and is perhaps the only crumb of comfort to be gained from this exercise.
Van Damme
So what does all this tell us? Apart from the fact that I clearly have too much time on my hands?
Well, it’s all just supposition but questions may conceivably be asked of the team’s mentality, fitness and approach. Particularly in away games our tendency to sit deep as the match progresses, inviting pressure and diminishing the chance for sustained possession in the opposition half, inevitably results in more goal-scoring opportunities for our opponents. Similarly, there has been a pattern in recent home games of Liverpool establishing a lead and then preserving the advantage as the second half progresses, rather than decisively looking to add to the score. It’s a safety first approach which, though when deployed from of a position of clear advantage may help to secure a result, at times only emphasises the fallibilities of an underperforming squad.
I have been less vocal than many in my criticisms of Hodgson this season, accepting that any new manager requires a bedding-in period to enable his vision for the future to be developed and implemented. Given the turmoil surrounding the club at the time of his appointment, and the fall-out from a desperately disappointing season that ultimately cost the previous manager his job, it was only to be expected that progress would be slow to arrive.
However, the only conclusion that can be drawn from much of the available statistical evidence is that, on the pitch at least, Liverpool have gone into regression. Be it late goals, away wins, possession figures, number of defeats, points won from a losing position, the signs all point to a team struggling to translate the ideals of the manager into a successful formula. At which point those ideals must come under serious objective scrutiny, as there is little point in flogging to death a plan that repeatedly fails to come to fruition.
The alternative, one which an increasing number of Liverpool supporters favour, is to dispense with the manager. It’s certain that John Henry and his associates will give careful consideration to every option. The decision they reach will determine whether Liverpool can start to claw their way back to the pinnacle of European football. Or whether a lifetime of Jean Claude Van Damme films is the best we can look forward to.
So what does all this tell us? Apart from the fact that I clearly have too much time on my hands?
Well, it’s all just supposition but questions may conceivably be asked of the team’s mentality, fitness and approach. Particularly in away games our tendency to sit deep as the match progresses, inviting pressure and diminishing the chance for sustained possession in the opposition half, inevitably results in more goal-scoring opportunities for our opponents. Similarly, there has been a pattern in recent home games of Liverpool establishing a lead and then preserving the advantage as the second half progresses, rather than decisively looking to add to the score. It’s a safety first approach which, though when deployed from of a position of clear advantage may help to secure a result, at times only emphasises the fallibilities of an underperforming squad.
I have been less vocal than many in my criticisms of Hodgson this season, accepting that any new manager requires a bedding-in period to enable his vision for the future to be developed and implemented. Given the turmoil surrounding the club at the time of his appointment, and the fall-out from a desperately disappointing season that ultimately cost the previous manager his job, it was only to be expected that progress would be slow to arrive.
However, the only conclusion that can be drawn from much of the available statistical evidence is that, on the pitch at least, Liverpool have gone into regression. Be it late goals, away wins, possession figures, number of defeats, points won from a losing position, the signs all point to a team struggling to translate the ideals of the manager into a successful formula. At which point those ideals must come under serious objective scrutiny, as there is little point in flogging to death a plan that repeatedly fails to come to fruition.
The alternative, one which an increasing number of Liverpool supporters favour, is to dispense with the manager. It’s certain that John Henry and his associates will give careful consideration to every option. The decision they reach will determine whether Liverpool can start to claw their way back to the pinnacle of European football. Or whether a lifetime of Jean Claude Van Damme films is the best we can look forward to.
Thanks for this thoroughly depressing read.
ReplyDeleteStatistics, dam statistics..but then there's little blood n guts in a hodgson approach either.
ReplyDelete